Why You Are A Fool If You Believe In Coming Web 2.0 Crash

Submitted by Dmitri Davydov on Wed, 2007-08-22 10:17.
Posted in:

Fools I tell you, all fools! (but if I’m wrong, you’re still a fool)

People seem to be under the impression that a big ‘ol crash of Web 2.0 is going to rock the tech and Internet marketing industries, hardcore. We’re talking about predictions that are being compared to the dot com crash of the late 90’s and early 2001′ish. Are you guys serious?! People are also predicting left and right, on their blogs, on forums, in magazines, at networking or social events, pretty much anywhere you can think of, there are people saying “it’s coming, watch out for it”. Guess what? They are all wrong.

This is exactly what I’m talking about when I bitch about people being fake or not knowing what the hell they are talking about. It’s really true too. Because anyone with a brain can see that the dot com crash back in the pioneering days of the Internet explosion and the rash of Web 2.0 sites being launched (almost all of them in beta) are COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER.

First off, I love the Web 2.0 start up and website launches going on. I like them because they are interesting, entertaining, and many of the ideas really are unique and interesting. But just like communism, many of them sound awesome on paper but are crap in reality and just won’t work out. But hey, that’s how business is. The important thing is that you tried it and failed, there’s no shame in that. I’d much rather try and fail, than wonder years later if it could have worked, and let it bug me like that. That’s the worst.

Secondly, here’s why there won’t be a Web 2.0 crash…. The industry is profitable. Yep. That’s why. I promise you, it’s really that simple. Sure there are hundreds of Web 2.0 sites and services and free stuff and this and that coming out every day it seems, but when you boil it down to the cold hard facts, they aren’t being injected with hundreds of millions of investment capital like the companies of the dot bomb era. The large majority of these 2.0′ers are starting up with very little of their own cash or none at all, so if they fail, the cash lost is only for those directly involved in the company, no outsiders really. Another thing that makes it very tough to cause a catastrophic crash is that many of these 2.0′ers are also just spin-off services or projects by small and medium profitable companies testing the waters with a subsidiary or independent product/service under the primary company’s umbrella. So even if the project fails, no one is depending on it to take the company to the next level, and there are no salaries or budgets that are relying on how much cash it makes. If it fails, it fails, and it won’t hurt anything except a few egos.

So let’s do a quick recap so you can steal my idea and regurgitate it on your blogs, forums, networking and social events, etc etc.

There will be no 2.0 crash because:

  1. Hundreds of millions of dollars from investors are not being injected into these 2.0 companies and projects.
  2. The average 2.0 start-up company or project takes $10,000 or less to build (and that’s the expensive route).
  3. The industries they are creating sites/projects for are not depending on them for anything (they are more or less just a cute idea to help automate or connect you with something you probably don’t need anyway).
  4. The people who are independently creating the 2.0 sites and projects are individuals investing their own cash into it, there aren’t many outside investors involved, nothing even remotely close to the dot-com rush and bust, plus if it bombs, the people inside the company are the only losers, doesn’t really effect anyone on the outside. (sorry, but you won’t be missed, and tragically for you, you’ll most likely be forgotten just as quickly).
  5. The companies creating small 2.0 projects or subsidiary projects in a Web 2.0 package are not putting shit piles of cash into it, therefor their current business assets and cash are not fueled by the success or demise of the 2.0 deal, and if it does fail, it will benefit more as a tax write-off/loss than if it were a success.
  6. They have lovely colors and design beauty attached to them, and NOTHING so beautiful looking can ever die!! (I’m not a designer, but that’s what I would imagine they would say/think — suckers!)
  7. Ajax is not overrated, yet!
  8. Google has not paid more than $2B for one of them yet.
  9. They are fun to watch going from start-up, to beta, to waiting to get out of beta, to waiting some more, to dying without anyone giving a crap about them being around in the first place!
  10. People outside of the tech and Internet marketing industry have no idea what Web 2.0 is! If the whole damn thing came tumbling down, they wouldn’t even notice it. Hell, they’d probably think you were talking about stuff from 1999.

This is why I know there won’t be a crash of 2.0 sites and projects…. because no one would care! Web 2.0 in my mind (and a warped mine it is folks) is a form of creativity mixed in with some business goals and potential achievements. I hope it stays around for a long time, and if the design of it changes, then we’ll call it Web 3.0, Web 4.0, etc. But when you strip away the sweet designs, all your left with is just a bunch of concepts, some cool, some retarded, some innovative, some not worth mentioning with a straight face, but all creative to some degree, and that’s what I like about it.

The end. Story time is over. Have a goodnight.

[Via - Aojon.Com]

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